Has the U.S. Already Lost Sight of China? A Reflection on U.S. Foreign Policy
As the world continues to evolve at breakneck speed, the United States, a superpower for much of the 20th and 21st centuries, finds itself at a crossroads. With global crises on multiple fronts—the war in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine, the COVID-19 pandemic, internal political polarisation, and the growing alignment of the Global South with BRICS—one must ask: Has the U.S. already lost sight of China? And in the context of Kishore Mahbubani's arguments in Has China Won? The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy, is the U.S. facing a deeper strategic challenge than it realises?
War in the Middle East and Ukraine: Distractions or Strategic Priorities?
The conflicts in the Middle East, particularly the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, have long occupied U.S. foreign policy. While maintaining alliances in the region remains critical, these conflicts have often consumed vast amounts of diplomatic energy and resources. Similarly, the war in Ukraine, triggered by Russia's invasion, has drawn much of the West’s focus and led to a resurgence of Cold War-era tensions. While supporting Ukraine is crucial for maintaining the post-World War II international order and upholding sovereignty, it represents a significant commitment in both military and financial terms.
However, with these distractions, has the U.S. inadvertently diverted attention away from the long-term geopolitical challenge posed by China? While Washington remains embroiled in these conflicts, China has been quietly expanding its influence globally, especially through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its deepening economic ties across Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
The Aftermath of COVID-19: A Power Shift?
The COVID-19 pandemic also represented a significant turning point in global geopolitics. While the U.S. struggled with a disjointed domestic response, China managed to rebound relatively quickly, using the pandemic to further cement its role in global supply chains and demonstrate its capacity for state-driven mobilisation. China's perceived success in managing the pandemic—despite controversies over the origins of the virus—allowed it to position itself as a responsible global actor, providing medical aid and vaccines to developing countries, reinforcing its soft power at a time when U.S. leadership was largely absent.
The pandemic also exacerbated domestic challenges in the U.S., deepening political polarisation and further weakening its global leadership image. While China continued to pursue long-term strategic objectives, the U.S. appeared increasingly preoccupied with internal issues.
Domestic Polarisation: Eroding Global Leadership
The deepening political polarisation in the U.S. has undoubtedly weakened its ability to lead effectively on the global stage. With domestic debates over issues like immigration, voting rights, economic inequality, and racial tensions, U.S. foreign policy has often taken a back seat to internal struggles. This polarization has created significant gridlock in Washington, making it difficult to form a coherent and sustained foreign policy agenda.
Meanwhile, China's political system, while autocratic, has allowed for a long-term strategic approach that is largely insulated from domestic pressures. Under President Xi Jinping, China has consistently pursued its vision of becoming a global superpower by 2049, the centennial of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. While the U.S. faces election cycles and changing administrations, China’s long-term plans remain uninterrupted.
BRICS Expansion and the Alignment of the Global South
The expansion of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) is another major shift in global geopolitics that the U.S. must contend with. BRICS has grown in influence, with countries from the Global South increasingly aligning themselves with its alternative model of international cooperation. China's influence within this bloc cannot be overstated—it is not only the largest economy within BRICS but also plays a leading role in shaping its vision of a multipolar world.
The growing alignment of countries in Africa, Latin America, and Asia with China and BRICS presents a challenge to the U.S.-led liberal international order. Many of these countries, disillusioned with the West’s historical dominance and its slow response to their developmental needs, are increasingly looking to China as a viable alternative for economic partnerships and political influence. China’s emphasis on infrastructure development and investment has resonated deeply with nations in the Global South, further eroding U.S. influence.
Has China Won? The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy
Kishore Mahbubani’s Has China Won? The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy makes a compelling argument that the U.S. has misunderstood the nature of its competition with China. According to Mahbubani, the U.S. has spent too much time assuming that the Chinese system would collapse under the weight of its contradictions—its political authoritarianism, its central planning, and its suppression of dissent. Yet, far from collapsing, China has continued to rise, developing a hybrid model of state-driven capitalism that has delivered impressive results in economic growth, technological innovation, and global influence.
Mahbubani argues that the U.S. is facing a moment of reckoning. Rather than trying to contain China through military alliances or economic sanctions, the U.S. must rethink its strategy by focusing on domestic renewal and global cooperation. China’s long-term, strategic thinking and its ability to adapt without the constraints of a democratic system have given it a significant advantage in the competition for global influence. Moreover, the U.S.’s tendency to frame its relationship with China in Cold War terms may be counterproductive, as it overlooks the complex interdependencies that exist between the two economies.
The Path Forward: Strategic Re-engagement
So, has the U.S. lost sight of China? The answer may be nuanced. While the U.S. remains deeply involved in global crises and distracted by domestic issues, China’s rise has continued unabated. However, all is not lost for the U.S. The country still maintains vast economic, military, and cultural influence, and its alliances with democratic nations remain a formidable counterweight to China’s power.
To regain its footing, the U.S. must:
Refocus on strategic competition: While addressing immediate crises is important, Washington must not lose sight of long-term challenges. The U.S. needs a comprehensive China strategy that prioritises economic resilience, technological innovation, and diplomatic engagement.
Invest in domestic renewal: The polarisation and political gridlock at home are undermining the country’s ability to lead abroad. By addressing internal issues, the U.S. can restore its credibility and ability to project global leadership.
Engage with the Global South: The U.S. needs to develop a more robust engagement strategy with developing nations. Focusing on sustainable development, equitable trade, and infrastructure investment will help counter China’s influence in these regions.
The U.S. has not necessarily lost sight of China, but it is undoubtedly at risk of falling behind. As China continues its ascent, the U.S. must rethink its approach to maintain its position in a rapidly shifting global order. The stakes are high, and the next decade will be critical in determining whether the U.S. can adapt and thrive in the face of China’s challenge
